TPTK on dry board vs flop raise from limper

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rob
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TPTK on dry board vs flop raise from limper

rob
Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $10.32
Hero (BB): $16.28
UTG: $16.85
UTG+1: $3.21
MP: $7.91
CO: $15.63
BTN: $10.00

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with A of diamonds J of spades
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, MP calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, 1 fold, MP calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.35) J of diamonds 3 of hearts 6 of spades (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, MP raises to $1.50, Hero calls $0.80

Turn: ($4.35) 9 of clubs (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $5.81 all in, Hero calls $5.81

River: ($15.97) 7 of diamonds (2 players - 1 is all in)

rob
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Re: TPTK on dry board vs flop raise from limper

rob
Alright so I've found a decent way to convert to text that works in this forum - should be pretty useful to have the hand in the forum itself. Plus it means we can hide the result which is always good. Gonna make another topic with the steps of how to convert.

For the hand:


Villain is 16/3 over like 2k hands, limps 15% in MP


What do you reckon his range is to raise the flop?


What do you reckon his range is to bet the turn?


Do you think the fact he overshoves the turn makes much difference to anything?
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Re: TPTK on dry board vs flop raise from limper

PokerVagabond
Administrator
Interesting hand/bit of a random one

I reckon his range is geared towards:

KJ,QJ,JT,AJ (if he's not raising that but his PFR is so damn tight
Easily could have hit his sets
45
And possibly spazing out with TT (although I think he would be raising that)

When he shoves the turn, in my head, it doesn't change his range too much apart from possible not opening showing his OESD..but yet again that could be exactly what he would be shoving with.

Had a little look into flopzilla (not that I'm 100% that I'm using it all correctly) but it seems you have a huge amount of equity vs that range.

Did I calculate it correctly that you need 57% equity using your Risk / (risk + reward) thing?

And according to the range I put in you have around 70%. Even with limped QQ+ you still have 54%

Let me know if I have done this all completely wrong haha
rob
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Re: TPTK on dry board vs flop raise from limper

rob
It's interesting that you think he can have KJ/QJ/JT there... my first instinct was that he would more likely just call down with them but I decided he could raise them some % of the time, which was why I ended up calling on the turn.

It sounds like you're doing the right thing on Flopzilla - same kinda numbers I'm seeing.

I modelled it with him having JJ+, AQ+ 25% of the time (as in he raises them 75%, limps 25%) and

- raising the flop 50% of the time when he has top pair, we've got 50% equity
- raising the flop 25% of the time when he has top pair, we've got 40% equity
- raising the flop 75% of the time when he has top pair, we've got 55% equity

The risk-reward calculation is gonna be risk = 5.81, reward = 4.35 + 5.81 = 10.16.

So risk / (risk+reward) = 5.81 / (10.16 + 5.81) = 36%

So as long as he's raising flop at least ~25% of the time has top pair, we're good to call.

I guess it's actually pretty standard...

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Re: TPTK on dry board vs flop raise from limper

PokerVagabond
Administrator
really liking the fact that I can start to do basic EV calculations after a session. Flopzilla is definitely improving my game ten fold. Obviously a long way to go but it's a start!


I'll get posting a hand tomorrow as I think I have a few that would be worthwhile