Alright so I've found a decent way to convert to text that works in this forum - should be pretty useful to have the hand in the forum itself. Plus it means we can hide the result which is always good. Gonna make another topic with the steps of how to convert.
For the hand:
Villain is 16/3 over like 2k hands, limps 15% in MP
What do you reckon his range is to raise the flop?
What do you reckon his range is to bet the turn?
Do you think the fact he overshoves the turn makes much difference to anything?
It's interesting that you think he can have KJ/QJ/JT there... my first instinct was that he would more likely just call down with them but I decided he could raise them some % of the time, which was why I ended up calling on the turn.
It sounds like you're doing the right thing on Flopzilla - same kinda numbers I'm seeing.
I modelled it with him having JJ+, AQ+ 25% of the time (as in he raises them 75%, limps 25%) and
- raising the flop 50% of the time when he has top pair, we've got 50% equity
- raising the flop 25% of the time when he has top pair, we've got 40% equity
- raising the flop 75% of the time when he has top pair, we've got 55% equity
The risk-reward calculation is gonna be risk = 5.81, reward = 4.35 + 5.81 = 10.16.