Alright so here's another hand. Kind of similar to the other one where the villain overbets, except now my hand is a bit better and there's the potential for villain to have draws BUT villain overbet is like 2x pot.
Villain is 15/8 and has a 12% cold-calling range, pretty consistent across all positions.
So pretty standard questions...
1) What's his preflop range
2) What's his flop range
3) What's his turn range (particularly given he's overbet)
4) What equity % do we need to make the turn call
I'd definitely like to hear what you think about him over-shoving the turn. Is it more likely a value hand who doesn't want me to ever call with a draw, or a draw that wants to get some folds (and presumably has good equity if called)?
Think his preflop range is most Broadways and pocket pairs. MAYBE the odd suited connector but probably not many, if any at all. Do you have enough hand on him to get a rough estimate on if he 3bets 'a lot' from the blinds?
So looking at the flop he x/r range is something consisting of a large percentage of his initial calling range I would like to think.
(I use 'all' very loosely here)
All flush draws
All 2 pairs
Top Pair good kicker not wanting the flush to get there
Random AA, KK that flatted preflop to trap? Possibly but not likely
KQs, KQo but more unlikely as you have 2 queens.
The turn doesn't seem to change much in my eyes. Apart from getting rid of a few combos (he's probably not shoving with a gutshot for example)
(At this point I've become increasingly confused with Flopzilla on how to change flop equity, and turn equity and what not so you might have to show me again and i'll do some of my own study but thought I might as well let you know that I may have fucked up)
So putting everything in again from scratch and also this time I decided to add a few nut flush draws into his range as well
I've come out with a turn range consisting of
66, 88, TT+, A7s+, KQs, KQo(?), AJo
Even with fiddling around with a few other ranges we have about 50% equity give or take.
So with the old risk/ (risk + reward) we come out with
$8.21/ (8.21 + 3.78) = 68%
So does that mean we need 68% and we have 50% or the other way round?!?! haha I'm still getting used to this equity calculations.
You definitely need to be posting on deuces crack haha.
Anyway that's my 2cents...bear with me and I'll improve!
Alright so I'm on my Mac partition and don't have the 3bet stat, so let's assume his 3bet is low (which I'm pretty sure it was).
So your assessment of his pre flop range sounds pretty reasonable to me.
I pretty much agree with your flop range... Definitely agree that sets, flush draws and two-pair hands take that line.
I think it's kinda interesting on TPTK / TPGK. I definitely do see people raise those hands on this kinda board, but I don't know if it's standard.
Kinda interested to hear whether you would take that line with TPTK or TPGK? Personally I'd probably be check-calling and I think that I might be missing value... versus a wide button range there's definitely tons of hands that can call a flop raise and call you down (particularly with the flush draw there). The more I think about it the more I like a check-raise with AJ for sure, less sure about KJ. Lemme know your thoughts for sure.
When I read that all of his flop range can overshove the turn I immediately disagreed... I feel like an overbet really polarises people - it's my gut that he'd only be doing that with his really strong hands (that don't want us to draw out) and his better draws (that are happy to get it in cos they have good equity).
BUT the more I think about it, the less sure I am. You just don't see people overshove that much so I don't know if I've got that great a handle on what he could do that with. I'm actually tempted to look on HEM and find spots where people have over-shoved the turn to see some examples. Might well do that.
I'm not sure about the 50% you said (cos of not being sure his over-shoving range is that wide) but it could well be >40%. He probably doesn't need to have too many flush draw combos that have like 20-25% equity to get us up to >40%.